LONDON—Scientists studying Europe's record-breaking June heatwave say the event reflects a fundamental shift in the continent's climate, with human-caused global warming making extreme temperatures far more likely and more intense than in previous decades.
A rapid attribution analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group concluded that the heatwave affecting large parts of western and central Europe in late June would have been "virtually impossible" without climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Researchers said Europe, already the world's fastest-warming continent, is experiencing heat extremes that are arriving earlier in the year and exceeding historical benchmarks.
The WWA study found that daytime temperatures during the event would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius lower had a comparable heatwave occurred around 50 years ago. Researchers also estimated that roughly 45% of the nearly 850 European cities examined either broke or were expected to break records for heat stress, a measure combining temperature and humidity.
"The weather pattern itself is not particularly unusual, but the temperatures are—or at least they used to be, without human-induced climate change," said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution, during the presentation of the findings.
Lead author Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London said the findings indicate that Europe has entered a different climate regime in which heatwaves once considered exceptional are becoming increasingly probable. Researchers said June is warming faster than any other month across Europe, allowing severe heat episodes to occur well before the traditional peak of summer.
The study employed established attribution methods comparing current climate conditions with simulations representing a world without significant human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Although rapid attribution analyses are produced before formal peer review, the researchers said they rely on peer-reviewed methodologies widely used in climate science.
The findings come after an intense heatwave swept across much of Europe, contributing to excess deaths in several countries, straining health services, disrupting transport and increasing pressure on electricity systems. Reuters reported that scientists said the event was effectively impossible without human-driven climate change and described the broader pattern as evidence of an increasingly warmer global climate.
Scientists said reducing greenhouse gas emissions while expanding measures to protect communities from extreme heat will be critical as Europe faces an increasing likelihood of severe heatwaves in the years ahead.
