LONDON—Strong investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and accelerating adoption of AI tools by businesses are helping cushion the impact of slower global economic growth, rising financing costs and geopolitical uncertainty, although economists and financial institutions continue to warn that the benefits remain uneven and the long-term returns on unprecedented spending are still uncertain.
Recent economic assessments from financial institutions and industry researchers indicate that AI-related capital expenditure has become one of the principal sources of business investment in 2026, supporting demand for semiconductors, data centers, cloud computing infrastructure and power generation even as broader manufacturing and consumer activity softens in several major economies.
Morgan Stanley said AI-related investment has helped sustain U.S. economic momentum despite higher energy costs and external shocks, with spending on data centers, computing infrastructure and software continuing to exceed earlier expectations. The bank forecasts that AI investment will gradually broaden into wider business spending after an initial infrastructure-led phase.
Analysts at EY similarly said AI remains one of the few structural drivers capable of offsetting slower labor-force growth and geopolitical headwinds, although they cautioned that many productivity gains are likely to emerge only after companies complete large-scale investments in computing capacity, software integration and workforce adaptation.
Corporate spending has remained concentrated among major technology companies, which continue to expand AI infrastructure at an unprecedented pace. S&P Global Ratings said technology companies are maintaining firm investment plans despite broader cost pressures, with enterprise customers increasingly prioritizing AI projects aimed at improving efficiency and automating operations.
The broader economic effects, however, remain mixed. The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence reported that private AI investment more than doubled during 2025 while organizational adoption continued to expand across industries. At the same time, researchers noted that infrastructure costs, including computing power and data-center investment, have also risen sharply, underscoring the substantial capital required to support AI deployment.
Some economies are already benefiting more directly than others. China's manufacturing sector returned to expansion in June as demand for AI-related exports, including advanced chips and computing equipment, helped offset persistent weakness in property markets and domestic consumption, according to official purchasing managers' survey data and analysts.
Economists nevertheless continue to caution against assuming that elevated investment will automatically translate into sustained productivity gains. The Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report that concentrated spending by a relatively small number of technology companies could create financial vulnerabilities if commercial returns fail to match investor expectations. Other analysts have similarly noted that many industries outside technology have yet to realize measurable productivity improvements despite increasing AI adoption.
Despite those risks, recent economic outlooks broadly conclude that AI investment is providing an important source of resilience as governments and businesses navigate slower global growth, persistent inflationary pressures and shifting trade patterns, with policymakers and investors closely monitoring whether productivity gains broaden beyond the technology sector over the coming quarters.
