WASHINGTON — Economists expect U.S. employers to add around 110,000 jobs in June, a slowdown from the strong gains reported for May, as the labor market shows signs of cooling after a period of resilience.
The consensus forecast points to nonfarm payroll growth moderating from May's surprising 172,000 increase, which far exceeded expectations of about 85,000 and followed upward revisions to prior months, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady near 4.3 percent.
Private payroll processor ADP reported companies added 122,000 jobs in May, also above forecasts, with gains across most sectors and company sizes. However, other indicators have pointed to a more subdued pace. Job openings rose in April but hires remained depressed in a low-turnover environment, according to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
The June jobs report, scheduled for release on July 2, comes amid broader economic uncertainty. Recent data have shown mixed signals, with some sectors like health care, leisure and hospitality continuing to add positions while others, including financial activities, have seen declines.
Economists at firms including Capital Economics and others have forecast gains in the 110,000 to 130,000 range for June, reflecting a gradual cooling from earlier 2026 strength. RBC Economics projected about 145,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged.
The labor market has settled into a pattern of modest growth sufficient to keep the unemployment rate relatively stable, following weaker periods in 2025. The breakeven level of job gains needed to hold the jobless rate steady has declined due to slower labor force growth.
Average hourly earnings are expected to continue rising at a moderate pace, with year-over-year wage growth around recent trends.
The report will be closely watched by Federal Reserve officials as they assess the balance between inflation concerns and labor market conditions. The strong May figures helped ease some worries about a sharp slowdown but did not alter the overall picture of a labor market that is neither overheating nor contracting sharply.
No major surprises are anticipated in the June data, though revisions to prior months could shift the three-month average of job growth. The BLS noted in its May release that the next employment situation report covers June.
