ANN ARBOR, Michigan — The University of Michigan is scheduled to release its preliminary July reading of U.S. consumer sentiment on July 17, with economists expected to scrutinize the survey for further evidence of whether household confidence is continuing to recover after hitting historic lows earlier this year.
The closely watched Surveys of Consumers showed sentiment improving in June after three consecutive monthly declines. The headline Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 49.5 from a record low final reading of 44.8 in May, while the current conditions index increased to 47.7 and the expectations index climbed to 50.7, according to the University of Michigan. Even with those gains, overall confidence remained well below levels recorded a year earlier.
University of Michigan economist Joanne Hsu, who directs the survey, said after the June release that easing gasoline prices helped lift consumer confidence across income groups and political affiliations. However, she cautioned that sentiment remained in unfavorable territory as households continued to express concern about elevated prices and the impact of inflation on living standards.
The survey is closely followed by investors, policymakers and economists because it provides an early measure of consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions and inflation expectations. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, making changes in household confidence an important indicator for assessing the broader economic outlook.
Financial markets will also examine the survey's measures of one-year and longer-term inflation expectations, which are monitored by Federal Reserve officials alongside other inflation indicators when evaluating monetary policy. Reuters reported after the preliminary June release that easing fuel prices and a resilient labor market contributed to the modest rebound in sentiment, although inflation concerns and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on consumers.
Forecasts compiled by market calendars ahead of the July release point to another modest increase in the headline sentiment index from June's final reading of 49.5, though estimates vary slightly among data providers. The University of Michigan has not published the July figures ahead of the scheduled release.
The preliminary July survey is scheduled for release at 10 a.m. EDT on July 17, with the university expected to publish revised final July results later in the month.
