LOS ANGELES—The U.S. box office entered the Independence Day holiday weekend with a relatively light slate of new nationwide releases, leaving family films and holdover titles to compete for moviegoers during one of the summer's traditionally strong theatrical periods.
Industry analysts projected Universal and Illumination's "Minions & Monsters" to lead the July 3-5 weekend after opening ahead of the holiday, while Pixar's "Toy Story 5" was expected to remain a strong draw in its third weekend. Trade publication Boxoffice Pro forecast "Minions & Monsters" would debut with between $65 million and $75 million domestically over the three-day weekend, with "Toy Story 5" expected to add roughly $33 million to $38 million.
Unlike some previous Independence Day frames that featured multiple high-profile openings, studios largely avoided launching several major films over the same weekend in 2026. The principal new wide releases instead included family-oriented animation and the historical drama "Young Washington," leaving established summer releases to benefit from the holiday audience.
Early daily box office data showed "Minions & Monsters" leading domestic earnings on Thursday with about $10.8 million, ahead of "Toy Story 5," which collected roughly $8.5 million as it continued to demonstrate staying power following its franchise-record opening in June.
According to Box Office Mojo, the July 3-5 frame followed a weekend in which the domestic market generated about $148 million across the top 10 films, down from the previous weekend but still reflecting the strength of the summer release calendar. Final results for the Independence Day weekend were not yet available as theaters continued reporting holiday attendance.
The Fourth of July period has historically ranked among Hollywood's most lucrative holiday corridors, with schools on summer break and extended weekends often boosting attendance. Recent Independence Day holidays have been led by tentpole releases including "Jurassic World: Rebirth" in 2025 and "Despicable Me 4" in 2024, according to Box Office Mojo's historical records.
Studios and theater operators will closely watch final holiday grosses for signs of sustained momentum heading into the second half of the summer season, when additional franchise releases are scheduled to reach cinemas later in July and early August. Weekend box office estimates are expected before final domestic figures are released after the holiday period.
