WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release an updated World Economic Outlook next week, with the revised forecast expected to provide a new assessment of global growth, inflation and risks after recent shifts in energy markets and geopolitical conditions, the fund said.
The update is scheduled for release on July 8, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said, as the global economy continues to face uncertainty linked to geopolitical developments, commodity prices and changing financial conditions. The report will follow the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, which presented multiple scenarios for the global economy amid heightened risks from conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supplies.
The IMF’s April outlook included scenarios based on different assumptions about the duration and impact of the Middle East conflict. The fund said at the time that a prolonged disruption to energy markets could weigh on growth and push inflation higher, while a faster resolution could limit the economic impact.
The upcoming update will show whether the IMF maintains the scenario framework introduced in April or returns to a more traditional baseline forecast, Kozack said. The fund has been monitoring developments in oil markets and trade flows following an agreement between the United States and Iran that reduced immediate concerns over further escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy transit route.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said the global economy has so far shown resilience despite recent shocks, while warning that renewed disruptions could pose risks to growth. The fund’s economists have also highlighted uncertainty surrounding inflation trends, monetary policy decisions and shifts in global trade relationships.
The World Economic Outlook is one of the IMF’s main assessments of the global economy and provides projections for advanced, emerging and developing economies. The report typically examines growth prospects, inflation pressures, financial conditions and policy challenges facing member countries.
The July update comes as policymakers and investors watch for signs of whether recent shocks will have a lasting effect on global economic activity. The IMF has not released the full updated projections ahead of the publication date.
The next confirmed development is the IMF’s scheduled release of the updated World Economic Outlook on July 8.
